US Congress to wait and see about 123 agreement- Hindustan Times

After going through the full text of 123 agreement, I feel that I should continue to withhold support or opposition to this pact due to the fact that my opinion may be biased.

Indian media is celebrating big time as if it is a done deal. India's friendship with Iran alone can kill this deal. The problem for UPA government is that it cannot wash its hands with the Iran problem because its Left allies will make the life very difficult for the govt. If India has a right to choose Iran as its friend then why can't the U.S. Congress reject the pact because U.S. has a right not to do business with countries which support its enemies? Let us not forget that Iran is causing lot of trouble in Iraq and we are losing our soldiers there.

As an Indian American, I have always hoped to see India as our equal partner in the world. I also hope that India will overcome the temptation of becoming a country that depends on us. A strong India will be more helpful to us than India which acts like Australia and Poland. If Indian politicians choose to become like Australia & Poland (and many other countries), I am afraid that India will never be able to achieve its goal of becoming a superpower in strategic and economic sense.

I have no doubt that the wisdom will prevail when our Congress and Indian Parliament debate this pact in the weeks and months to come. However, India's aim to become a superpower may be imaginary if its Constitution does not provide for Parliament's approval for all strategic and trade treaties. Lack of that provision in the Indian Constitution weakens the negotiating capacity of Indian diplomats.

In the absence of a Constitutional requirement for ratification of treaties by the Parliament, a weak and incompetent future Prime Minister whose party has overwhelming majority in the Lok Sabha can give away Kashmir or make a irreparable harm to India's long term foreign policy under pressure or otherwise. Indians need to move to a politics of consensus on important issues. The checks and balances in Indian system are either non-existent or non-working. Indian people should be encouraged to participate in Parliamentary committees' proceedings so that people know what MPs are doing.

There are many Indian Americans who neither support or oppose this pact. However, Iran issue may push them to take a stand because we cannot ignore Iran factor due to its activities in Iraq. Iran issue makes many of us very uncomfortable.

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Here is the full Hindustan Times Article published on August 4, 2007:

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Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Hindustan Times
NY/Washington, August 04, 2007

First Published: 11:27 IST(4/8/2007)
Last Updated: 11:40 IST(4/8/2007)

US Congress to wait and see about 123 agreementThe release of the text of the 123 agreement coincided with much of the US Congress preparing to leave for their late summer recess. While staffers expressed concerns that the Bush administration had conceded too much on reprocessing rights and nuclear fuel guarantees, most Washington observers feel the US Congress would eventually vote in favour of the 123 agreement. However, the margin of victory could be smaller than occurred for the Hyde Act. "There is less support today for the deal than there was last November," said an Indian official.

Besides the obvious procedural prerequisites of an India-IAEA safeguards agreement and a yes vote from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, two key obstacles could muddy a congressional okay for the 123:

* The wild card that could trip up congressional support would be any sense that India is consolidating an economic or military relationship with Iran.

* The nuclear deal's traditional opponents, the nonproliferation lobby, will insist India got too much leeway in fuel guarantees and reprocessing rights.

The NSG vote remains uncertain, largely because of the China factor. However, some Indian-American lobbyists like Ramesh Kapur of the Indian-American Security Leadership, believe that if Beijing overplays its hand in the NSG, an angry "US Congress could vote in favour of the 123 without NSG approval."

Questions about India's ties with Iran continue to cloud the minds of many US congressional staffers. Despite repeated State Department explanations, many in Washington believe in a mythical Indo-Iranian military relationship. Says Teresita Schaffer, South Asia expert of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "The staffers don't like the deal – they didn't like the Hyde Act either. The key will be to get to the elected members."

Part of the problem is that Congress tends not to look at the big picture and instead focuses on the week's front page news – which is often about Iran.

The US corporate lobby believes Iran is the only issue that could sink the deal.

The nonproliferation lobby, which inspired a petition by 23 Congressmen after the 123 agreement's conclusion was announced, is less of a worry. Michael Krepon of the Henry Stimson Center earlier summed up this lobby's argument: "The Bush administration should not make it easier for New Delhi to resume nuclear testing and to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons. It appears that the 123 agreement fails to meet these minimal standards."

Sanjay Puri of the US-India Political Action Committee says at least four of the 23 congressmen are "opinion leaders" on Capitol Hill. "They are all from California. A lot of them were originally troubled by this agreement."

Arjun Bhagat, an Indian-American lobbyist from California, explains this represents a "very idealistic position" common on the West Coast. "Californians would probably vote disproportionately for the US to unilaterally disarm itself of its nuclear weapons." This is not about India, he feels, but about nuclear disarmament. Says Lisa Curtis, regional expert at the Heritage Foundation, "Most members are likely to wait and see how India's negotiations with the IAEA proceed as well as its efforts with the NSG."

US President George W Bush's political decline makes Republican support more difficult to predict. His party no longer automatically takes his lead. Republican think tanks like the Heritage Foundation strongly believed that the contentious "right of return" clause be part of the 123 agreement. Kapur says, "If we had a vote today, we might see less Republicans ayes and more Democratic support for the deal." Senior Democratic leaders like Senator Ted Kennedy, he says, have indicated they favour the 123.

There are signs that the Indian-American community has been less generous in donations to the Republican electoral kitty, partly because there is no clear Republican candidate. Kapur warns, "This is going to be an uphill battle. Don't take anything for granted." Schaffer agrees, saying the next few months will be a "nail-biter" for the nuclear deal.

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