Deccan Herald - Monsoon session from tomorrow; likely to be stormy

Deccan Herald - Monsoon session from tomorrow; likely to be stormy

Good Morning India !!! Today India will be electing is new Vice President. The front runner is going to be the winner so there is no suspense. Let us file away that news and move on.

Indian Parliament's Monsoon session is going to start today. BJP wants a debate in the parliament on 123 Nuclear pact with the US. UNPA is also demanding the same. Folks let us not think that BJP and all constituents of UNPA have become anti-US. I think BJP is concerned that the Pact is not in India's long-term strategic interests. My personal take on this is that the pact will lack credibility and legitimacy if it is not approved by the Parliament.

I cannot understand what Indian foreign policy makers see in Iran that they have fallen in love with that country. Is it Muslim appeasement? I am saving that discussion for some other day.

In this blog I am trying to explore possible hypothetical outcome(s) of this issue in the Parliament. One or more of the following things can occur over the next few days:

-- The Presiding Officers in the both houses may accept the BJP's request and allow debate followed by voting on this issue. If that happens, UPA does not have enough vote to win this debate in either House.

-- Even if the UPA wins the vote, NDA and UNPA may go ahead and move no confidence motion against Dr. Manmohan's Singh's government. That will put the Left Front in a very difficult position. God know what would be the outcome in that case. Mid-term polls? Oh no.. we should wait till 2009 and let UPA government do more bad work.

-- The Presiding Officers in the both houses may allow debate without voting on this issue. If that happens, UPA is safe for the time being. However, such a move will have huge political costs for the UPA and the Left Front.

-- After debate on this issue without voting, the opposition parties may still move a no-confidence motion against the UPA government on this issue. Once again it will be very costly for the Left Front and the UPA.

My political sense tells me that the UPA government may be heading for some rough time in the weeks to come. Every time the Left Front comes to UPA's rescue, more and more political capital will be spent by both. However, one can argue that both UPA and the Left Front have no political capital because people are frustrated with the performance of the UPA government in last 3 years.

Stay tuned for more updates !!!

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